September 11, 2017 · Team HG
Over the past five years, the number of cafes in the Netherlands has decreased from approximately 9,300 to 8,950, a drop of 4%. Over a ten-year period, the decline is even steeper. During this period, 1,324 cafes disappeared in the Netherlands, or 13%.
Looking at the provincial trend, it can be seen that only in Friesland, Overijssel, and Drenthe has the supply increased again over the past five years. In Friesland, there is a recovery; here, the situation is virtually back to the level of ten years ago. We also see a decline and stagnation in supply in the major cities. Over the past ten years, the number of cafes here decreased by nearly 11%. Over the past five years, the decline amounted to only -1.6%. This and more is evident from research by Van Spronsen & Partners hospitality consultancy.
For example, the province of Groningen still had 404 cafes in 2007, but this number had dropped to just 335 in 2016. The decline was somewhat slower in the city; we had 191 cafes in 2007 and 164 in 2016.
Over the past ten years, supply has increased only in Leeuwarden (+23%), Leiden (+11%), and The Hague (+6%). The biggest drops during this period occurred in Enschede (-21%), Venlo (-20%), and Roermond (-18%).
Nevertheless, Venlo and Roermond, together with Maastricht and Amsterdam, have by far the most cafes relative to the number of inhabitants. In 2016, the Netherlands had an average of one cafe per 1,900 inhabitants. In Maastricht, there is as many as one cafe per 770 inhabitants. Apeldoorn has the fewest cafes relatively speaking, with over 2,400 inhabitants per cafe.
Despite the fact that the entire industry is under pressure and supply is decreasing, we see a varied picture by type of café. In 2007, village/neighborhood cafés and traditional brown cafés together still represented 61% of the entire industry; in 2012, this share dropped to 56%, and in 2016, it fell to just 52%. The share of food cafés, on the other hand, has increased in recent years. In 2007, they accounted for 22% of cafés, rising to 25% in 2012, and in 2016, the share even stands at 28%.
The number of cafes has declined less rapidly over the past 5 years (-4%), following a 10% drop in supply during the period 2007-2012. However, it appears that the decline will not stop anytime soon. This is due, among other things, to changing consumer behavior. New generations no longer grew up with the cafe as the meeting point for their social lives. Cafe visits are declining due to the rise of social media, festivals, and online streaming services like Netflix. The sofa in the living room is therefore literally one of the cafe's major competitors.
Blurring and the decline in alcohol consumption, coupled with a growing focus on healthy living, are also having an impact on the market. The new generation of entrepreneurs sees little future in small-scale café businesses where they are required to be fully involved in the day-to-day operations. The sale and acquisition of this type of café business has been stagnating for years.
The aging population (visits to the hospitality industry decline after a certain age) and depopulation (concentration of residents towards large cities) also have an impact on the sector, particularly in rural areas. Given these developments, we expect that, on balance, approximately 250-275 more cafes will close their doors over the next five years, implying a decline of nearly 3%.
Naturally, there are also opportunities. The trend, which has been ongoing for years, to convert the café into a dining café will offer opportunities under specific circumstances. The village/neighborhood café and traditional pub must develop multiple revenue streams. This can be achieved by adding functions such as a parcel pick-up point—a market experiencing enormous growth due to the ever-advancing internet sales. A pick-up and drop-off service for dry cleaners/laundries, a service point for banks (which are closing more and more branches and removing more and more ATMs), or a municipal information desk for the elderly are also among the promising possibilities. In this way, the café becomes the "meeting point" again and retains its local function. For the time being, however, there are limitations here given the current Alcohol and Catering Act.
Read the industry booklet ‘Het Café in Beeld’ for more information.
